UK National Lotto #1609

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Winning numbers drawn at 8.30pm BST on Wednesday 25th May 2011:

The table below is courtesy of Camelot's phone line (0845 9100 000 *10).

Category      Prize       Winners       Total        Percentages
Jackpot     £2,384,748           1    £2,384,748      32.3%
5+bonus       £244,589           3      £733,767       9.9%
5 match         £1,895         242      £458,590       6.2%
4 match            £71      14,030      £996,130      13.5%
3 match            £10     281,921    £2,819,210      38.1%
Totals                     296,197    £7,392,445     100.0%

Category                  Change       Figure
Ticket sales             0.8% fall   £16,456,145   

Lotto HotPicks #927 results:

Category        Prize         Winners        Total     Percentages
Pick 5          £130,000            0             £0       0.0%
Pick 4            £7,000            8        £56,000       8.2%
Pick 3              £450          702       £315,900      46.1%
Pick 2               £40        7,192       £287,680      41.9%
Pick 1                £5        5,201        £26,005       3.8%
Totals                         13,103       £685,585     100.0%

The next table displays the draw order, revised frequencies and the last prior appearance of each of the 7 balls.

                    Updated Frequencies       Since Last Appeared
Drawn   Order      Main    Bonus   Total    Main    Bonus    Either
1st       48       200      27      227       3       48        3 
2nd       17       198      36      234       1       19        1 
3rd       46       190      33      223       3       11        3 
4th       07       186      27      213       6       83        6 
5th       30       207      31      238       1       96        1 
6th       08       189      39      228       3       51        3 
Bonus     34       197      35      232       4       18        4 
Total    190      1367     228     1595      21      326       21
Avg.      27.1     195.3    32.6    227.9     3.0     46.6      3.0

Comments:

• The draw used ball set 3 in the Arthur machine and the average main Lotto prize was £24.96. One in every 55.6 main Lotto tickets won a prize (=1.80% of players).
• If all 13,983,816 ticket combinations were additionally purchased for the main Lotto game, they would have made a loss of £10,414,498.
• The prior history of the main Lotto jackpot ticket included 29 wins totalling £420.
• From Saturday 12th July 2003 onwards, Camelot has completely refused to issue per-draw sales figures for any of their individual games, despite continuously doing so for more than 8 years prior to that date. They blamed the media for only concentrating on the main Lotto game sales (which have been falling steadily for years), which seems to be a poor excuse to me. However, games with variable prize tiers such as the main Lotto can have their sales figures reverse-calculated to within a few pounds, which is what I have done.
• For the second draw in a row (it happened last Saturday too), Camelot left the pre-draw jackpot pool estimate of £2,400,000 on their official site's draw page and are continuing to claim that it was the exact jackpot prize awarded. Yet again, it "coincidentally" matched the pre-draw estimate aired on the lottery TV show and it also failed again to match the prize calculation formula, which makes me suspect that it's a marketing ploy of some sort to round up the jackpot amounts.

  Anyway, here's the correct calculations for you to mull over:

  Ticket sales:      16,456,145.00    Estimated by forward-calculating 3-match to 5+bonus and
                                      adjusting ticket sales until they fit the formula
  Total prize pool:   7,405,265.20    45% of ticket sales rounded down to nearest 10p
  3-match pool:       2,819,210.00    3-match prize pool (10 * 3-match winners)
  Pools fund:         4,586,055.20    45% of sales - 3-match prize pool
  6-match pool:       2,384,748.70    52% of pools fund
  6-match prize:      2,384,748.00    1 6-match winner, prize = (int)(pool/1)
  5+bonus pool:         733,768.83    16% of pools fund
  5+bonus prize:        244,589.00    3 5+bonus winners, prize = (int)(pool/3)
  5-match pool:         458,605.52    10% of pools fund
  5-match prize:          1,895.00    242 5-match winners, prize = (int)(pool/242)
  4-match pool:       1,008,932.14    22% of pools fund
  4-match prize:             71.00    14,030 4-match winners, prize = (int)(pool/14030)
  

  As you can from the bolded prize figures above, they all tally with the ones given out by Camelot, so my sales and 6-match prize estimates are pretty accurate - if I vary either of them by more than £5 or so, they don't match the formula any more. Camelot didn't really comment when I phoned them up about this second consecutive incorrect jackpot prize - they just told me to send all the calculations I've made to [email protected] which I've now done. I think if I don't get a sensible response from that, it could be time to get the UK tabloid media involved...

• Unclaimed prizes from this draw expired at 5.30pm GMT on Monday 21st November 2011 and have been added to the National Lottery Distribution Fund.

Next Lotto: #1610 (Saturday 28th May 2011) [2 jackpot winners]
Previous Lotto: #1608 (Saturday 21st May 2011) [1 jackpot winner]

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