UK National Lotto #1608

UK Lottery E-mail Scams Warning

Winning numbers drawn at 8.30pm BST on Saturday 21st May 2011:

The table below is courtesy of Camelot's phone line (0845 9100 000 *10).

Category      Prize       Winners       Total        Percentages
Jackpot     £4,094,077           1    £4,094,077      30.2%
5+bonus       £114,519          11    £1,259,709       9.3%
5 match         £1,405         560      £786,800       5.8%
4 match            £55      31,246    £1,718,530      12.6%
3 match            £10     571,395    £5,713,950      42.1%
Totals                     603,213   £13,573,066     100.0%

Category                  Change       Figure        Percentages
Ticket sales  (Sat)      3.9% fall   £30,193,726     64.5% of Sat+Wed  sales
Ticket sales  (Wed)      0.9% rise   £16,594,509     35.5% of Sat+Wed  sales
Ticket sales  (S+W)      2.3% fall   £46,788,235   

Lotto HotPicks #926 results:

Category        Prize         Winners        Total     Percentages
Pick 5          £130,000            0             £0       0.0%
Pick 4            £7,000           20       £140,000      11.1%
Pick 3              £450        1,381       £621,450      49.0%
Pick 2               £40       11,769       £470,760      37.1%
Pick 1                £5        7,021        £35,105       2.8%
Totals                         20,191     £1,267,315     100.0%

The next table displays the draw order, revised frequencies and the last prior appearance of each of the 7 balls.

                    Updated Frequencies       Since Last Appeared
Drawn   Order      Main    Bonus   Total    Main    Bonus    Either
1st       35       205      31      236       4       28        4 
2nd       17       197      36      233       3       18        3 
3rd       24       199      30      229       4      120        4 
4th       30       206      31      237       3       95        3 
5th       23       217      36      253      17      127       17 
6th       04       193      37      230      10        1        1 
Bonus     05       185      34      219       8       30        8 
Total    138      1402     235     1637      49      419       40
Avg.      19.7     200.3    33.6    233.9     7.0     59.9      5.7

Comments:

• The draw used ball set 4 in the Guinevere machine and the average main Lotto prize was £22.50. One in every 50.1 main Lotto tickets won a prize (=2.00% of players).
• If all 13,983,816 ticket combinations were additionally purchased for the main Lotto game, they would have made a loss of £9,285,340.
• The prior history of the main Lotto jackpot ticket included 27 wins totalling £310.
• From Saturday 12th July 2003 onwards, Camelot has completely refused to issue per-draw sales figures for any of their individual games, despite continuously doing so for more than 8 years prior to that date. They blamed the media for only concentrating on the main Lotto game sales (which have been falling steadily for years), which seems to be a poor excuse to me. However, games with variable prize tiers such as the main Lotto can have their sales figures reverse-calculated to within a few pounds, which is what I have done.
• Camelot left the pre-draw jackpot pool estimate of £4,400,000 on their official site's draw page for many days after the draw took place. However, despite obviously being the pre-draw estimate announced live on the lottery TV show and also not matching the prize calculation formula, Camelot's phone line staff were dubiously telling the public that it was the exact jackpot prize!

  However, by adjusting ticket sales so that the match 3 through to match 5+bonus tiers fit the prize calculation formula, it's possible to then adjust the jackpot prize to also fit correctly. I did the sales and jackpot prize adjustments manually without any program coding i.e. by simple data file edits and re-running a formula check to work out how much to manually adjust the next edit by.

  Anyway, here's the correct calculations for you to mull over:

  Ticket sales:      30,193,726.00    Estimated by forward-calculating 3-match to 5+bonus and
                                      adjusting ticket sales until they fit the formula
  Total prize pool:  13,587,176.70    45% of ticket sales rounded down to nearest 10p
  3-match pool:       5,713,950.00    3-match prize pool (10 * 3-match winners)
  Pools fund:         7,873,226.70    45% of sales - 3-match prize pool
  6-match pool:       4,094,077.88    52% of pools fund
  6-match prize:      4,094,077.00    1 6-match winner, prize = (int)(pool/1)
  5+bonus pool:       1,259,716.27    16% of pools fund
  5+bonus prize:        114,519.00    11 5+bonus winners, prize = (int)(pool/11)
  5-match pool:         787,322.67    10% of pools fund
  5-match prize:          1,405.00    560 5-match winners, prize = (int)(pool/560)
  4-match pool:       1,732,109.87    22% of pools fund
  4-match prize:             55.00    31,246 4-match winners, prize = (int)(pool/31246)
  

  As you can from the bolded prize figures above, they all tally with the ones given out by Camelot, so my sales and 6-match prize estimates are pretty accurate - if I vary either of them by more than £5 or so, they don't match the formula any more. So unless Camelot have changed the prize formula structure, they are probably almost 10% out on their jackpot prize figure! I have passed on this discrepancy to Camelot and we'll have to wait to see if they correct their figure.

• Unclaimed prizes from this week expired at 5.30pm GMT on Thursday 17th November 2011 and have been added to the National Lottery Distribution Fund.

Next Lotto: #1609 (Wednesday 25th May 2011) [1 jackpot winner]
Previous Lotto: #1607 (Wednesday 18th May 2011) [2 jackpot winners]

© Richard K. Lloyd & Connect Internet Solutions Limited 2020
Disclaimer - This is an unofficial UK lottery site
Auto-generated at 10.28am BST on Thursday 16th July 2020