UK National Lotto #1391

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Winning numbers drawn at 8.30pm BST on Wednesday 22nd April 2009:

The table below is courtesy of Camelot's phone line (0845 9100 000 *10).

Lotto HotPicks #709 results:

The average Lotto HotPicks prize was £51.54.

The next table displays the draw order, revised frequencies and the last prior appearance of each of the 7 balls.

Comments:

• The draw used ball set 4 in the Sapphire machine and the average main Lotto prize was £18.95. One in every 65.0 main Lotto tickets won a prize (=1.54% of players).
• If all 13,983,816 ticket combinations were additionally purchased for the main Lotto game, they would have made a loss of £9,159,611.
• The prior history of the main Lotto jackpot ticket included 26 wins totalling £405.
• From Saturday 12th July 2003 onwards, Camelot has completely refused to issue per-draw sales figures for any of their individual games, despite continuously doing so for more than 8 years prior to that date. They blamed the media for only concentrating on the main Lotto game sales (which have been falling steadily for years), which seems to be a poor excuse to me. However, games with variable prize tiers such as the main Lotto can have their sales figures reverse-calculated to within a few pounds, which is what I have done.
• There may be a discrepancy of £1 in the jackpot prize amount that was rolled over (or possibly the 5+bonus prize amount). Unfortunately, phoning Camelot for the ticket sales didn't help (they just said "about £17m") and they're not on the official lottery site either, so the usual reverse calculation using the prize formula was needed to estimate the ticket sales to +/- a few pounds. Here's the initial calculation (note that the prizes for 4-match and 5-match do work out correctly):

  Ticket sales:     £17,711,244.00
  Total prize pool:  £7,970,059.80  (= 45% of sales, rounded down to nearest 10p)
  Subtract 3-match: -£2,597,460.00
  Variable pool:     £5,372,599.80  (for match 4, 5, 5+bonus and 6 tiers)
  6-match pool:      £2,793,751.89  (52% of variable pool)
  6-match prize:     £2.793.751.00  (no winner, rounded down and then rolled over)
  5+bonus pool:        £859,615.968 (16% of variable pool)
  5+bonus prize:       £429,807.00  (2 winners, rounded down to nearest pound)
  

  If you then start adjusting the ticket sales down, clearly the 6-match pool will drop (to £2,793,750 initially), so that doesn't work. If you increase the ticket sales by £1, you get these calcs:

  Ticket sales:     £17,711,245.00
  Total prize pool:  £7,970,060.20  (= 45% of sales, rounded down to nearest 10p)
  Subtract 3-match: -£2,597,460.00
  Variable pool:     £5,372,600.20  (for match 4, 5, 5+bonus and 6 tiers)
  6-match pool:      £2,793,752.104 (52% of variable pool)
  6-match prize:     £2.793.752.00  (no winner, rounded down and then rolled over)
  5+bonus pool:        £859,616.032 (16% of variable pool)
  5+bonus prize:       £429,808.00  (2 winners, rounded down to nearest pound)
  

  So whilst the 6-match prize is now correct, the 5+bonus prize is £1 too high. I suspect Camelot have applied incorrect rounding at some point and have come up with a jackpot and 5+bonus prize that can't match the prize formula.

• Unclaimed prizes from this draw expired at 5.30pm BST on Monday 19th October 2009 and have been added to the National Lottery Distribution Fund.

Next Lotto: #1392 (Saturday 25th April 2009) [1 jackpot winner]
Previous Lotto: #1390 (Saturday 18th April 2009) [1 jackpot winner]

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